Non-consensus and right: why the best startups look wrong at first
An idea from Andy Rachleff, Howard Marks · Updated 2 October 2026
More from Bill Gurley and Benchmark
Short answer
Andy Rachleff, co-founder of Benchmark, argues that the only way to outstanding returns is to be right and non-consensus. If you're right and consensus, the opportunity is too obvious and the returns get competed away. Howard Marks makes the same point for investing in general: above-average results only come from unconventional bets that turn out well.
The 2x2
In Rachleff's words: "The only way to generate outstanding returns is to be right and non-consensus."
- Right and consensus: everyone sees it, competitors get funded, and returns get competed away.
- Right and non-consensus: where outstanding returns come from.
- Wrong, either way: losses.
Why it feels uncomfortable
Howard Marks's memo "Dare to Be Great II" (2014) draws the same grid for investors: conventional behavior gives average results, good or bad, and only unconventional behavior that turns out well gives above-average results. As he put it in 2006, "Non-consensus ideas have to be lonely."
The catch
Rachleff notes you only know you're non-consensus when you make the bet. Whether you're right comes later.
In your deck
Your insight slide is where this shows: what do you believe that most people don't yet, and what evidence says you're right?
Read the originals
- Demystifying venture capital economics, part 1 · Andy Rachleff (Wealthfront)
Why venture returns come from a handful of companies, and why being right and non-consensus is the only way to outstanding returns.
- Dare to Be Great II · Howard Marks (Oaktree Capital)
The 2x2 of conventional and unconventional behavior, and why above-average results need the second.
Questions founders ask
- What does non-consensus and right mean?
- Being right about something most people don't believe yet. Andy Rachleff argues it's the only way to outstanding returns, because consensus opportunities get crowded.
- Why don't consensus ideas make money for investors?
- Because, as Andy Rachleff puts it, the opportunity is too obvious and the returns get competed away.
- Who created the non-consensus and right 2x2?
- It's associated with Andy Rachleff, co-founder of Benchmark. Howard Marks of Oaktree describes a similar grid for investing in general.
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